Below we’ve got breakdowns for each game of Tuesday’s 14-game evening slate on DraftKings and FanDuel along with player rankings, suggested lineups, projections and a research chart.
Game Breakdowns
Braves @ Phillies
Philly lefties are in a good spot against Mike Foltynewicz today. Between this year and last Folty has a 5.18 xFIP and 2.29 HR/9 vs. LHH. Odubel Herrera is Philly’s best lefty against right-handed pitching with a 125 wRC+ vs. RHP dating back to last season. Cody Asche is also an option as he’s been going well lately with a 165 wRC+ in the last 14 days. Herrera is over-priced but arguably affordable on DK. Asche, on the other hand, is very good salary relief on both sites.
Atlanta bats against Zach Eflin is a battle of “worsts.” Atlanta ranks dead last in wRC+ vs. RHP and Eflin ranks dead last in my pitching projections today. The only potential plays here are Freddie Freeman and Jace Peterson. Freeman owns a 141 wRC+ vs. RHP and a 179 wRC+ in the last 14 days. Peterson has also been swinging it well with a 149 wRC+ in the last 14 days. Both guys have nice prices on both sites.
Brewers @ Nationals
If you like to gamble, Gio Gonzalez is a GPP option tonight. In his last eight starts he’s striking out almost 12 batters per nine innings and has a 3.31 xFIP. The problem is that in those same eight starts his ERA is 8.10. He has allowed at least three earned runs in each of those eight starts. He has definitely has some bad luck (.417 BABIP, 57% LOB%), but he has hurt himself by walking almost four batters per nine innings. His matchup tonight with Milwaukee has all kinds of upside as the Brewers have the fifth highest K% vs. LHP and they rank 25th in wRC+ vs. LHP. Gio is priced well on DK, so he has some good value potential there in GPPs.
As for bats, Bryce Harper is always a great option against a right-hander as he owns a 184 wRC+ vs. RHP between this year and last. He’s also coming out of his recent struggles a bit with a 150 wRC+ in the last 14 days and a 224 wRC+ in the last seven. He’s worth paying for where you can. Daniel Murphy is also good against right-handers, but he’s not priced as attractively and hasn’t been swinging all that well lately.
Royals @ Blue Jays
Anytime Chris Young pitches opposing hitters are very much in play given Young’s heavy fly ball tendencies. Young has a 55.6 percent fly ball rate this year and is giving up a whopping 3.69 home runs per nine innings. The Blue Jays rank 2nd in ISO vs. RHP, so this is a dream matchup for them, especially since the game is in hitter-friendly Toronto and not Kansas City. Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson are both excellent against same-handed pitching and are swinging hot bats. Of the two, E5 is a bit more affordable. Devon Travis is also good against same-handed pitching and comes with a really nice price tag on FD. If he hits up in the order, he’ll be tough to forego on FD. If he does hit up the order, Travis, Donaldson, E5 and Michael Saunders should hit 2-3-4-5 and would make for a good stack, albeit a very popular one.
Stack suggestion: Toronto 2-5
Tigers @ Indians
Carlos Carrasco has some upside here with the third highest strikeout rate of any starter in action tonight (25.4 percent) and a matchup against Detroit who has the eighth highest K% vs. RHP. But the Tigers rank fifth in wRC+ vs. RHP, and Carrasco really isn’t priced all that well, which stymies some of his value potential. If you like him, a GPP on FD would be the spot to use him. As for bats, the only guy that really sticks out is Jason Kipnis. He’s got a 138 wRC+ vs. RHP and will face RHP Anibal Sanchez who has a 6.17 ERA in 12 starts this season. At only $3,000 on FD, Kipnis is an excellent value there.
Angels @ Rays
Just a couple of bats in play here. First, Mike Trout is almost always an option and certainly is tonight. Trout has been swinging it well with a 248 wRC+ in the last 14 days. Tonight he’ll face RHP Jake Odorizzi who has significant reverse splits. Trout has always been great against same-handed pitching, so he’s in a particularly good spot tonight. The only other option is Brad Miller at the thin shortstop position. Miller is above average against RHP and has some pop. He’s a decent value on DK.
Marlins @ Mets
Both pitchers are worth a look here, though they each have warts. Steven Matz struggled in June posting a 5.74 ERA, which could have been a result of the bone spurs he’s reportedly dealing with. But Matz did have some bad luck last month with a .393 BABIP and 67.7 percent strand rate. He struck out an almost a batter per inning and continued to show good control. The Marlins strike out a bit more than average, so Matz could have some upside here. He’s also priced pretty well on DK, so he has value potential. The bone spurs and recent struggles make him too risky for cash games, but he’d be fine in a GPP on DK.
Wei-Yin Chen is also worth a look despite his 5.11 ERA because the Mets have the highest strikeout rate in the league vs. LHP. Chen isn’t a strikeout guy himself, but he has posted decent strikeout totals in games against strikeout-prone teams like the Padres and Brewers, who have two of the five highest strikeout rates vs. LHP. Chen is very, very cheap on DK and a bit under-priced on FD where SP value is tough to come by today.
Some hitters are also in play here which speaks to the risk involved with the pitchers. For the Marlins, Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton are very good against left-handed pitching with each having a wRC+ vs. LHP north of 160 between this year and last. Both guys are priced very well on FD, and Stanton is priced well on DK as well.
For the Mets, more righties are in play. Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores all have good numbers against lefties and have all been swinging it well lately. Flores and d’Arnaud are both priced fantastically on FD at just a hundred or two over the minimum. Cespedes is priced just about right on both sites but has been going so well that he’s worth paying for.
Rangers @ Red Sox
I’m not of the opinion that David Price is broken. He has a K-BB% of 20.8% and a SIERA of 3.41. Sure, he’s giving up too much hard contact, but at some point he’s going to rip off a good stretch of starts. However, tonight might not be the start of a run as he’ll face the Rangers who are top 10 in wRC+ vs. LHP and have a well below average strikeout rate. Price is talented enough to have a big night against anyone, and he’s priced well on DK, so he could have some value potential there for GPPS. But I’ll look elsewhere. The only bat I’d really consider using against Price is Robinson Chirinos who has a 137 wRC+ vs. LHP between this year and last. He’s nice and cheap on both sites and would make for a good punt option.
For Boston bats, their lefties are in a great spot against A.J. Griffin. Griffin has a decent 3.88 xFIP against righties but a 4.97 xFIP against lefties. He also leans very fly ball-heavy against lefties with a 53.3 percent fly ball rate against lefties so far this season. David Ortiz is still mashing righties and worth paying up for when and if you can. Jackie Bradley, Jr. is also very good against RHP, though Bradley has been struggling of late and isn’t priced all that attractively. Travis Shaw is a decent salary relief option at third base, and he, Ortiz, Bradley and Hanley Ramirez would make for a decent stack.
Stack suggestion: Boston 4-7
Behind the paywall you’ll find breakdowns of the remaining games, player rankings, suggested lineups and my research and projections chart.
